>From:    Bill Sebok <[log in to unmask]>
>Subject: MF numbers adding up
>I believe that that is a quite reasonable annual rate of increase and I
>could believe that the rate of increase could well be "way over" that,
>especially with ferrets becoming legal in Michigan and Massachusetts
>during this period.
 
Got a problem that you neglected when talking about the "new markets".
Marshall has never been able to keep up with demand in the markets that were
legal.  We've had stores tell us they order a dozen ferrets and get three.
To grow their numbers the next year they have to shrink the numbers this
year - a ferret kept as a breeder is a loss as a sale.
 
I'll conceded that Marshall would like to grow their sales this over 6% a
year and very well may have.  But imprecise terms like "way over" can't be
debated carefully as they mean nothing.  Is way over 10%, 50% or 100%?
110,000 ferrets?  150,000 ferrets?  200,000 ferrets?  If you are talking
about something you hate - say you are standing in water over your head,
that one inch is "way over" if you drown because you can;t reach up.  But if
the water is below your head and approaching fast that one inch before it
reaches you isn't "way over" if you think its going to catch up to you.
 
The numbers have tended to come from one document - a USDA inspection report
that listed sales for a previous year and ferrets on hand.  Lets deal with
those numbers right now.  The numbers were 82,918 sold and 39,000 ferrets on
hand.  We'll use 83,000 and 39,000 as its "close enough".  Of the 82,918
sold we'll assume evn sales over the year (inaccurate perhaps but close
enough again) so almost 1600 a week.  Kits leave at about 6 weeks according
to the worst reports.  Their eyes are close before that so they can't leave.
There would be kits up to 1, up to 2, ..., and up to 6 weeks old.  Six times
1600 is 9600 kits that are going to leave.  We'll assume the worst case of
ferrets retired at 3 years.  They aren't "breedable" for about a year, and
then two years worth of breeders.  Take that 39,000 subtract out the 9600
that are getting ready to leave so 29,400 and subtract out the 9,800 that
are "premature" for 20,600 breeding paris.  To get up to the 33,000 breeding
"pairs" they would have increased by 50%!  Thats quite a lot extra ferrets.
So was that 33,000 breeding pairs the expected growth from 20,600 or did it
include the premature not yet breeders?  Not included is the ferrets that
would die at the "normal" rate of 20 to 30% based on the results of hobby
breeders.  This really seems to point out that "we don't know anything"
about the ferrets at Marshall Farms.  We are guessing and extrapolating and
making things up as we go - on both sides and from the neutrals as well...
 
>Frankly I don't see the problem in the lower figure (> 3 / year).  I think
>it speaks well of MF that they aren't breeding the ferrets as hard as he
>suggests.
 
Actually the two litters a year is published and acknowledged.  They try
for three in first year (primaparous) jills.  See the Fox book on ferrets...
 
I've already shown problems with flat out accepting the numbers as
indeterminate but lets use them in another mathematical game.
 
There is no way that Marshall Farms could be profitable on 3 kits per
breeder per year.  They'd get in $200 per ferret that is a breeder.  Lets
look at feeding those 33,000 ferrets.  The income would be the $60 to $70
dollars per kit for a total of somewhere around $7,000,000.  If there are no
other expenses that leaves $212 to feed and water the breeders.  $0.58 a
day.  But that leaves no money whatsoever to pay for people.  Or to pay the
shipping costs for the ferrets being sold.  Or feeding the kits until they
are shipped.  Or to pay for all of this research we are demanding.
 
More problems I STILL see in the numbers are that to make the numbers work
the way you did is contradictory to information from the same folks claiming
the numbers.
 
>I disagree.  The numbers are the right order of magnitude.
 
Order of magnitude works maybe for the rate of growth.  I still dispute the
numbers as far too indeterminate as to definition to use for a deabte they
way they've been presented.
 
bill killian
zen and the art of ferrets
http://www.zenferret.com/
mailto:[log in to unmask]
[Posted in FML issue 1991]