The statistics gathered from the FML are biased at best and unusable at
worst because there is no way I can demonstrate the demographics of the FML
is similar to ferret owners as a whole, and between you and me, just the
fact that every FML person has or uses a computer daily is evidence of that.
Even taking into account several previous surveys, the demographics of the
FML cannot be fairly compared to any other group.  This has important
implications regarding the ferret list in general, and one I need to discuss
prior to the adrenal summary, because it sheds light on what we see posted
here.
 
I'm sure you have all heard the joke, "Those who are against me are liars,
and those who use statistics against me are damn liars."   You can use
statistics to prove almost anything.  All you need to find are two things
that statistically correlate to each other and you can make a point.  The
problem is, a statistical correlation does not mean there is a cause and
effect correlation.  My favorite illustration of this is "Nearly 100% of
people with severe hemorroids use toilet tissue."  Statistically this is
probably correct.  The trouble is, no cause/effect relationship has been
demonstrated.  Statistics show mathematical correlations, but only people
can take those correlations and look for cause/effect relationships.
Scientifically, this requires rigourous controlled testing, which for those
of you who are squimish about such things, usually involves the use of
ferrets for medical research and their subsequent sacrifice.
 
The toilet tissue argument is what is happening on the FML regarding adrenal
disease.  Read carefully; I am *NOT* saying *ANYONE* is wrong or right--all
I am saying is not a single person has shown a cause-effect correlation.  In
addition, each and every one of the supposed solutions are done without
scientific rigor nor with controls.  By itself, this makes the data
esentially useless.  Not totally, but pretty much so.
 
For example, and I am talking not just about homeopathic treatments but any
treatment, how do you know the change in the ferret is due to a specific
treatment and not because of additional handling?  Touch therapy is as old
as the beginning of human culture and it works; lots of studies have shown
touch to increase immune responses and there are a couple of documented
cases where touch therapy has been attributed to the remission of cancers
in terminally ill people.  So what part of treating the ferret is the
additional touching, and what part the medicine?  You don't have any
controls, so you can never be sure.  You can believe what you want, even
suggest it as a course of action, but you have no proof.
 
Another problem with FML data is we are subject to a constaint bombardment
of symptoms, treatments, theories, etc.  We are not the typical ferret
owner.  I know; I've met some and you would be extremely surprised to
discover how little the average ferret owner actually knows about their
carpet monkey.  The longer you read the FML, the more you learn about
ferrets until you reach the point that there are few medical surprises.
This does two things; it makes each of us think we know as much as people
who have spenta decade learning the physiology of animals, and it makes us
feel hopeless in the face of certain severe illnesses.
 
For example, I have been told canine distemper is 100% fatal, and I believe
it.  Yet, I know of at least three ferrets that has survived it, albeit with
some sort of permanent disability.  A similar thing occurrs with the
constant infux of adrenal posts; we hear it so much that they become
paramount in our mind, making the actual severity, demographics or survival
rate shift from reality to FMLity, which you cannot assume to be true or
real.  In other words, because we hear of it so often, we start to grant it
far more importance than it actually deserves.
 
I think that false sense of danger taints our perceptions of how we view
adrenal disease.  While I may know what percentage of FML ferrets display
adrenal disease (maybe 10%), MOST of them don't die from it until they are
past 6 years of age.  That is within the mortality window of the average
ferret, even without adrenal disease.  Think about this; what do you think
*you* will die from when you get near that magical 77 year mark?  Humans die
of strokes, heart disease and cancers (unless you smoke and its much worse).
Our species seems to have a weakness in those areas.  The same might be true
of ferrets; the "large" number of adrenal problems we see might be an
indication that the ferret is actually in its declining years.  Don't
confuse the early onset type of adrenal disease with the late onset.  I
persoanlly believe we are looking at two different disease processes here,
but more on that in the next--and last--post.
 
So what I seem to be saying is we can come up with all sorts of reasons for
the adrenal disease we seem to be seeing, but without proper statistical
proceedure, known demographics, and careful analysis of the results, we
really don't have anything other than rumor and enuendo.  Yes, we *know*
something is going on, but the relevance and extent of that knowledge is
uncertain.  What is needed is solid scientific research, the kind that
resorts to experimentation on live animals.  We need this basic knowledge
base in order to accurately assess the true danger that exists to our
ferrets.
 
Science is very much like law (except a scientific dream team rarely gets
millions of dollars) in that you must have unbroken links between the
suspect and the event.  Since arguments are similar to a series of links in
a chain, break a single link and the entire argument fails.  For every one
of the possible reasons I could come up with that could cause adrenal
disease, I could break one or more links, each the intellectual equivalent
of "If the glove don't fit, you must acquit."
 
Does this mean that none of the possibilities I've mentioned are possible?
Of course not.  I'm convinced more than ever that adrenal disease is an
environmentally-triggered genetically-predisposed disease.  Which is
probably old news to those investigating the issue, but, belief is not
evidence, and solid evidence for any cause/effect relationship simply does
not exist in the literature.
 
Now, I have a final post after this one and then I'll make myself available
to answer questions on any research I've done, the references will be made
available, etc.  Bear in mind this sort of discussion is necessarily
verbose, and with the size of the the FMLs lately, when a post goes over 125
lines I have to ship them to Bill who puts them in ASAP.  So there is this
sort of sureal waiting period until you see stuff.  That isn't me
back-pedalling or running off finding evidence, but just that I see the
question one night, post the answer the next night and you see it the 3rd
night (or later depending on various factors).  Patience.  And keep emotions
out of it, ok?  For much of this, I could easily do the equivalent of
smashing a basketball in your face if I wanted to, but that would detract
from the true purpose which is discussing the adrenal issues.  It would only
force me to use statistical evidence, making me a damn liar instead of just
a liar.
 
Bob C and 20 MO Four-Legged Fursnakes
[Posted in FML issue 2233]