Please, forgive the quote marks for this ENTIRE piece below. I
originally wrote it for something else but lost my copy and only have a
reply which someone sent. The words are my own.

Two important additions:
1. The intranasal vaccine can make a person contagious to ferrets and
people for a while.
2. Illnesses that begin as both very fatal and very contagious usually
later wind up milder (and you will see why in the text below).

>That study shows five possible mutations, achieved in laboratory,
>which have the potential to greatly worsen that influenza. The worry
>about publication is that the information might be misused. The reason
>for such research is because when the monitoring associations such as
>the World Health Organization know which mutations to follow they can
>perhaps (depending on the situation's particulars) jump faster.
>
>To date, the worst of the six huge influenza epidemics for which there
>are records is the 1918 - 1920 one which killed about 2% of the people
>who got it according to
>
> http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0027512
>
>which is
>
>"Comparative Analyses of Pandemic H1N1 and Seasonal H1N1, H3N2, and
>Influenza B Infections Depict Distinct Clinical Pictures in Ferrets"
>
>Ferrets are one of the most common animals used for influenza
>research, not all of which is fatal and some of the ferrets have been
>later adopted out when safer forms are involved, because their bodies
>react quite similarly -- though not identically -- to a number of the
>strains. So, the work is often a reliable indicator but not definite
>as to how humans will respond.
>
>Having more than one influenza strain at the same time in an animal is
>one of the two major ways that influenzas change (mutation and genetic
>reassortment), sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse.
>Genetic reassortment is also one of the reasons that farms which
>contain multiple species that get influenza tend to be origin sources
>for influenza (often ones with humans, pigs, and ducks which is one
>reason why farms in mainland China are common origin sites for new
>strains of influenza, but susceptible poultry, ferrets, and humans
>could also be a bad mix as could ferrets, pigs and humans).
>
>(Paragraph not relevant to this discussion removed by Sukie, but if
>you seek out CDC comments on the study they will tell you a lot since
>much of what is on the internet is exaggerated rumor.)
>
>Remember, too, that any infectious illness that fits two of the two
>worst categories: rapidly fatal, and very infectious tends to become
>self limiting past a certain point because those who have it die too
>rapidly to infect many others. Diseases which are rapidly fatal tend
>to not be highly contagious in casual exposures (as opposed to things
>like exposure to bodily secretions), and diseases which are highly
>contagious tend to either not be rapidly fatal with a long contagious
>time before symptoms or to not be very likely to kill. Even then,
>the ones with long times being contagious before symptoms are more
>limiting unless they are in a location where a huge number of
>exposures can happen. You can see why isolating areas will become
>essential should a location get a truly nasty version, no one in and
>no one out, and why individuals who have influenza should stay home
>from work and school, also why vaccinating individuals beforehand can
>break the chain Isolation also means no ferrets in or out of a shelter
>when a ferret or a person has the flu. (BTW, studies have shown that
>vaccines do not work quite as well in the elderly, that some work as
>well with smaller amounts if the vaccine is given very shallowly, and
>a Japanese study shows that the best population to vaccinate to stop
>an influenza epidemic in its tracks is school children.) A third
>feature which can make a virus a real menace is one that does not
>apply to many of the disease viruses, and that is long survival
>outside the body. ADV (Aleutian Disease Virus) which causes AD
>(Aleutian Disease) is one example of a virus which can do that.
>
>Shoot, there was an important point I wanted to make, but I forget
>what it was.
>
>Some influenza viruses can survive short term on surfaces, but most
>are spread by droplets from sneezing and coughing, and from hands.
>
>Compromised individuals, especially those with another respiratory
>problem, are at greatest risk.
>
>So, this is not cause for panic. That avian influenza is prone to
>recombination as well as to mutation is well known and has been for
>ages. Pinpointed information is very possibly best restricted in
>today's world, though.

Sukie (not a vet)

Recommended ferret health links:
http://pets.groups.yahoo.com/group/ferrethealth/
http://ferrethealth.org/archive/
http://www.miamiferret.org/
http://www.ferrethealth.msu.edu/
http://www.ferretcongress.org/
http://www.trifl.org/index.shtml
http://homepage.mac.com/sukie/sukiesferretlinks.html
all ferret topics:
http://listserv.ferretmailinglist.org/archives/ferret-search.html

"All hail the procrastinators for they shall rule the world tomorrow."
(2010, Steve Crandall)

[Posted in FML 7269]