Please, forgive the quote marks for this ENTIRE piece below. I originally wrote it for something else but lost my copy and only have a reply which someone sent. The words are my own. Two important additions: 1. The intranasal vaccine can make a person contagious to ferrets and people for a while. 2. Illnesses that begin as both very fatal and very contagious usually later wind up milder (and you will see why in the text below). >That study shows five possible mutations, achieved in laboratory, >which have the potential to greatly worsen that influenza. The worry >about publication is that the information might be misused. The reason >for such research is because when the monitoring associations such as >the World Health Organization know which mutations to follow they can >perhaps (depending on the situation's particulars) jump faster. > >To date, the worst of the six huge influenza epidemics for which there >are records is the 1918 - 1920 one which killed about 2% of the people >who got it according to > > http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0027512 > >which is > >"Comparative Analyses of Pandemic H1N1 and Seasonal H1N1, H3N2, and >Influenza B Infections Depict Distinct Clinical Pictures in Ferrets" > >Ferrets are one of the most common animals used for influenza >research, not all of which is fatal and some of the ferrets have been >later adopted out when safer forms are involved, because their bodies >react quite similarly -- though not identically -- to a number of the >strains. So, the work is often a reliable indicator but not definite >as to how humans will respond. > >Having more than one influenza strain at the same time in an animal is >one of the two major ways that influenzas change (mutation and genetic >reassortment), sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse. >Genetic reassortment is also one of the reasons that farms which >contain multiple species that get influenza tend to be origin sources >for influenza (often ones with humans, pigs, and ducks which is one >reason why farms in mainland China are common origin sites for new >strains of influenza, but susceptible poultry, ferrets, and humans >could also be a bad mix as could ferrets, pigs and humans). > >(Paragraph not relevant to this discussion removed by Sukie, but if >you seek out CDC comments on the study they will tell you a lot since >much of what is on the internet is exaggerated rumor.) > >Remember, too, that any infectious illness that fits two of the two >worst categories: rapidly fatal, and very infectious tends to become >self limiting past a certain point because those who have it die too >rapidly to infect many others. Diseases which are rapidly fatal tend >to not be highly contagious in casual exposures (as opposed to things >like exposure to bodily secretions), and diseases which are highly >contagious tend to either not be rapidly fatal with a long contagious >time before symptoms or to not be very likely to kill. Even then, >the ones with long times being contagious before symptoms are more >limiting unless they are in a location where a huge number of >exposures can happen. You can see why isolating areas will become >essential should a location get a truly nasty version, no one in and >no one out, and why individuals who have influenza should stay home >from work and school, also why vaccinating individuals beforehand can >break the chain Isolation also means no ferrets in or out of a shelter >when a ferret or a person has the flu. (BTW, studies have shown that >vaccines do not work quite as well in the elderly, that some work as >well with smaller amounts if the vaccine is given very shallowly, and >a Japanese study shows that the best population to vaccinate to stop >an influenza epidemic in its tracks is school children.) A third >feature which can make a virus a real menace is one that does not >apply to many of the disease viruses, and that is long survival >outside the body. ADV (Aleutian Disease Virus) which causes AD >(Aleutian Disease) is one example of a virus which can do that. > >Shoot, there was an important point I wanted to make, but I forget >what it was. > >Some influenza viruses can survive short term on surfaces, but most >are spread by droplets from sneezing and coughing, and from hands. > >Compromised individuals, especially those with another respiratory >problem, are at greatest risk. > >So, this is not cause for panic. That avian influenza is prone to >recombination as well as to mutation is well known and has been for >ages. Pinpointed information is very possibly best restricted in >today's world, though. Sukie (not a vet) Recommended ferret health links: http://pets.groups.yahoo.com/group/ferrethealth/ http://ferrethealth.org/archive/ http://www.miamiferret.org/ http://www.ferrethealth.msu.edu/ http://www.ferretcongress.org/ http://www.trifl.org/index.shtml http://homepage.mac.com/sukie/sukiesferretlinks.html all ferret topics: http://listserv.ferretmailinglist.org/archives/ferret-search.html "All hail the procrastinators for they shall rule the world tomorrow." (2010, Steve Crandall) [Posted in FML 7269]