Hi All:
 
Just a quick comment on Dick B.'s odds of contracting rabies that were
posted recently  (see below).  Before these stat's are put forward in
debates, it should be noted that the first computation is incorrect.  The
actual number of pet ferrets from 1988 through 1992 is not 5 times the
average owned for each year.  It is considerably less than this, because
many ferrets that were alive in 1988 were alive in one or more of the
following year, and would thus be tallied each year they were alive if using
this method.  Perhaps a more appropriate calculation would be based upon
taking 1988 figure and adding 1/7 of this figure for each additional year
(based upon my guess of an average ferret lifespan of 7 years) to account
for new ferrets acquired to maintain a constant figure of 8 million ferrets
alive per year.  Then add the additional number of ferrets in 1992 relative
to 1988 to account for increased ownership.  Using a 1992 census figure of
10,000,000, the total  number of ferrets owned from 1988 to 1992  would come
to roughly 14,000,000, compared to Dick's 45,000,000 used in the
computation.  This brings the odds of contracting rabies from a ferret down
to the "pretty astronomical" instead of just "astronomical".  It is still a
telling calclation!
 
Cheers - Croc'
 
>Over the period from 1988 to 1992 there were 2 ferrets found with rabies.
> The ferret population in 1988 was estimated by AFA at somewhere near 8
>million; in 1992, somewhere between 10 and 12 million. Let's take 9 million
>as an average.
>
>That would give you the odds of any one ferret being rabid of  1 in
>22,500,000.
[Posted in FML issue 1107]